The Voice of Retail speaks to the “so what.” It synthesizes trends, questions conventional wisdom, and surfaces risks and opportunities to watch for next
Join the conversation! Reply directly to me with your thoughts or comments and know that your voice is heard.
As we release this newsletter, we're also keeping a close eye on the fast-evolving trade landscape, with tariffs set to impact the retail sector. See our recent brief for insights and stay tuned for an upcoming CBRE Retail Flash Call.
I am excited to welcome Scott Schnuckel as Managing Director of Americas Retail, injecting retailer DNA into our leadership team with his two decades of broad-ranging real estate experience at Kohl's, including as head of real estate.
In this issue
Attention, Retailers! What to Know About Live Shopping
Why Private Labels Are on the Rise
When Gen Z Meets Skilled Trades
Attention, Retailers! What to Know About Live Shopping
He was speaking of live social shopping, which draws viewers with product demos, viewer chats and exclusive deals. It’s come a long way since QVC's debut in 1986. Reimagined for the smartphone era, live shopping has become a juggernaut in Asia (think Alibaba’s Taobao Live). In China it generated $500 billion in sales and made up an estimated 19% of e-commerce sales in 2022.
Some retailers venturing into live shopping are using native tools (Bambuser, Livescale, Emplifii, etc.). Others are tapping into apps and platforms like Amazon Live, eBay Live, TikTok live shopping or Poshmark’s Posh Shows. But hosting events on their own websites lets retailers own the valuable first-party data. (See “The Growth of Retail Media Networks.”) And brick-and-mortar retailers are turning stores into live shopping studios. The firm SuperOrdinary does 200 live events a month globally for brands like Kellogg’s and Vans. After building 30 studios across China, it’s setting up 15 in Los Angeles.
Online or in-store, look for live shopping to drive traffic, conversions, spending, visibility and engagement—and capture the first-party data that drives ROI.
Nearly two-thirds of Gen Z and millennials believe store brands match established names in quality, taste and value.
Investments in innovation and quality have paid off, and retailers are doubling down. Seven in 10 plan to expand offerings and boost marketing investments. Keep an eye on retailers that put a public face on private labels.
Skyrocketing tuition has many questioning the ROI of a college degree as job prospects dwindle and AI automates more roles.
Economic realities are also driving the shift. Gen Zers are grappling with inflation. And they suspect they’re being shortchanged on benefits as the trend toward a 29-hour workweek leaves them just shy of getting in on health insurance.
Skills-based hiring had been trending up in the federal government, some states, and firms like IBM and Deloitte. The trend has momentum, though fed practice going forward is TBD. (Former IBM CEO Ginni Rometty was ahead of her time in advocating for skills over degrees.)
Where are the impacts felt?
Look to construction, where:
Labor shortages are looming, with construction especially hard hit. Among construction workers, over 22% are age 55-plus, nearly twice the percentage in 2003. Immigration crackdowns could make the labor shortage worse.
Pay is rising. Already, new construction hires make more in annual median pay than entry-level white-collar roles—$48,089 versus $39,520 in 2023, according to ADP.
Private equity is investing in home services, creating a new class of entrepreneurs and elevating the prestige and potential payoff of these careers.
Who might benefit?
The embrace of skilled trades could favor retailers that serve Gen Z.
Watch Carhartt, Duluth Trading Company and retailers carrying brands such as Dickies and Timberland PRO for durable workwear, steel-toe boots and safety equipment.
Keep an eye on specialized retailers and suppliers like Ferguson Enterprises for plumbing, Johnstone Supply for HVAC, and brands like Harbor Freight and Snap-on Tools.
Home improvement and hardware stores could also see demand for tools, building materials and equipment.
Even big-box retailers with trade-focused divisions (Costco, Walmart) could benefit from more trade professionals shopping for work essentials, from tools to business equipment to laptops for managing client accounts.
Big picture, the skilled trades stand to benefit from the influx of Gen Z. But the labor pool is finite. Competition for workers could drive up retail pay—and operating costs. On the flip side, higher-paid workers, whether in the trades or in retail, have more buying power. And they could flex that power at checkout.
Beyond Real Estate
Recent readings with insights on and beyond commercial real estate.
High- and ultra-high-net-worth individuals are on the rise across key U.S., European and Asian markets.
Worldwide: 58 million people have net wealth over US$1 million, UBS reports.
The trend: HNWI numbers are up four-fold since 2000 and show no signs of dropping.
In the lead: nearly 22 million U.S. HNWIs as of 2024 and 16% growth forecast for 2023–28.
Coming up fast: Taiwan, with a 50% jump in HNWIs expected by 2028.
That surge, plus pent-up demand, could mean a quick rebound for the luxury industry. And the HNWI cohort is apt to be more insulated from economic uncertainty. But as boomers transfer their wealth, brands need to focus on what drives demand among Gen X and millennials—and what they value most. High on their list: experience, authenticity, personalization and sustainable practices. See CBRE’s report for more on who’s shopping where and what’s ahead.
Revenue growth is slowing. Price sensitivity is growing. Designer dupes are rising. How is fashion coping? By expanding price ranges and emphasizing brand, McKinsey says. (Also, by pursuing private labels and rolling back prices.) And as shoppers return to physical stores, retailers are looking for ways to make the experience worth the trip.
Fashion trends move in cycles, often coming back around every 10 or 15 years. But how? Street fashion, pop culture and viral moments on social media help turn the wheel. But there’s science behind the inspo. Learn how trend forecasters like WGSN and Peclers Paris use AI, data modeling and their own creative team to turn vision into predictions.
As more people live in cities, more people are suffering from depression, cancer and diabetes. Neuroscientists see a connection, and they’re taking their ideas to the streets. One study shows a link between façade design and neuroinflammation. (Turns out biophilic design is better for health.) See how brain-mapping, wearable devices and AI models could help build cities where people want to live—and live well.
Eli Lilly has LillyDirect. Pfizer has PfizerForAll. Both let patients bypass the pharmacy and purchase prescription drugs online, directly from the maker. These companies view the direct-to-consumer model as a way to help patients access and stick with their treatment. DTC may also be fueling the growth of retail media networks. Could live shopping be next? How will new limits on telehealth coverage by Original Medicare affect DTC? Results are pending.
Younger people are living with their parents longer. The aging U.S. population is aging in place. Dual-earner households struggle to find two jobs in a new place, and remote workers can just stay put. Plus, skyrocketing housing prices make moving harder for everyone, whether they’re buying their first home or moving up. Check out the interactive graphic to see where people are leaving—and going.
