Retail Reframed challenges conventional wisdom, refocuses the usual premise and asks unvarnished, thought-provoking questions about issues that drive opportunity.
With this issue, Retail Reframed welcomes Retail Research Director Ebere Anokute, joining Americas Retail Leader Laura Barr. His perspective adds spicy takes and bold insights on the retail scene.
In this issue
Mixed Signals: What’s Up with Consumers
Unified Commerce: Where Spending Is Happening
Fashion Focus: How GLP-1 is Reshaping Apparel
Korean Beauty Boom: Who’s Leading the Trend
Split Screen: Where Luxury Goes Next
Data Privacy: How TikTok Changed Its Terms
NRF Debrief: What We Learned at the NYC Conference
Mixed Signals: What’s Up with Consumers
Mixed signals are flashing across the consumer landscape. Inflation is cooling. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau reports. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 2.6%. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 3.7% in 2025 over 2024, the Census Bureau notes. The holiday season did offer some positive signs. According to the National Retail Federation, 2025 holiday sales were up 4.1% over the prior year. Consumers appear willing to spend, albeit cautiously.
Still, consumers feel pinched. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index finds consumer sentiment is still 20% below a year ago. Why the sagging sentiment? It's clear that the bulk of retail growth didn’t come because people were buying more. It came because they were paying more. And some were more willing to pay than others—which brings us to the K-shaped economy.
Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that more educated Americans have ramped up their spending over the past three years. Their disproportionate spending has driven up demand in some sectors while others lag. At the same time, lower-income households have spent more on essential goods and services, stoking inflation just where it hits them hardest. This widening split in the economy is clouding consumer sentiment and leaving retailers with questions we’ll continue to explore. But even when some of the signals are muddled, consumers are sending at least one message with absolute consistency: Value, quality and convenience rule.
Unified Commerce: Where Spending Is Happening
The e-commerce share of retail continues its to rise, increasing 5.1% year over year. But don’t read too much into that; 84% of retail spending still happens in-store (and a recent ICSC survey found that consumers who shopped in-store spent 40% more than those who used e-commerce alone). Given the relatively lower margins of e-commerce, retailers need physical stores to boost profits, so the demand for space continues—which leads us to unified commerce. Even more importantly, consumers increasingly demand to be met wherever they are and as seamlessly and conveniently as possible across the spectrum of desire to delivery. Not only is the store used to discover, connect or acquire but, when used correctly, it’s a powerful margin support for distribution.
Retailers who invest thoughtfully in unified commerce will have a huge edge over the next five to 10 years. The advantage will go to brands that have a store network and also have invested in the infrastructure to distribute efficiently from their stores, for example. Those brands will be more convenient to more consumers across channels—to meet them wherever they are—and will have better margins. Retailers with better margins will be better able to invest across their business to improve infrastructure and growth. They will be both more convenient and more competitive. And so their virtuous cycle continues.
Fashion Focus: How GLP-1 is Reshaping Apparel
First GLP-1 drugs hit grocery spending. Now the ripple effects are reaching apparel—particularly, the plus-size market. Ashley Stewart tried to declare bankruptcy. Torrid is closing stores. The changing consumer profile is forcing retailers to make hard choices in a substantial market.
The plus-sized clothing market was valued at $114.1 billion in 2023, with a 5.1% annual growth rate through 2032. This shift is not just a trend; it's a fundamental change in how the fashion industry operates. We’re even seeing the impact of GLP-1 drugs showing up on the runway.
A recent Vogue Business size inclusivity report revealed a drop in curves on the catwalk. In the Autumn/Winter 2025 fashion shows, 97.7% of runway looks were in sizes 0–4. Plus-size (size 14+) models’ representation fell to 0.3%, while mid-size (sizes 6–12) models wore just 2% of all looks shown last season, down from 4.3% the previous year, in what could be the shape of things to come.
Korean Beauty Boom: Who’s Leading the Trend
Korean beauty products are sweeping U.S. markets, bringing novel ingredients to eager consumers. Notably, Sukoshi, recently opened on New York's Upper East Side. The lease—brokered by CBRE's Cassie Durand, Aylin Gucalp and Kate Camenzuli—marked Sukoshi’s 15th location and its largest at the time. It’s part of a plan to open 40 stores by 2026, a robust growth strategy in a competitive landscape. Choosing the Upper East Side over more obvious locales like Koreatown allows Sukoshi to access a wider consumer base, which will be critical in achieving their aggressive growth targets.
More broadly, Sephora is partnering with South Korean beauty retailer Olive Young. The move lets Sephora capitalize on K-beauty and expands Olive Young’s global reach. Plans call for a rollout in North America, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Hong Kong in the second half of 2026. The Middle East, UK and Australia may follow in 2027.
Countering the K-beauty trend, Sephora rival Ulta Beauty looked closer to home for its new partnership. Drmtlgy joined the brick-and-mortar scene at Ulta Beauty in December. The LA-based medical-grade skincare brand will appear in nearly all of Ulta's 1,400 U.S. stores and online. With these plays, Ulta and Sephora are doubling down on their dominance in the beauty retail space. Look for them to shape consumer access to the next wave of products, wherever it comes from.
Split Screen: Where Luxury Goes Next
The luxury market is a study in dichotomy. In some areas, it’s growing, as ultra-luxury brands invest heavily in flagship stores and experiential retail. Where are they going?
Those brands aren’t outliers. In the first half of 2025, China accounted for more than a third of all global luxury retail activations, a Luxurynsight survey finds. That’s well ahead of Europe (20%), APAC (16%) and North America (10%). The shift may reflect efforts to re-ignite softer sales in Asia as of late. But the U.S. is regaining strength, JPMorgan research counters. While China projects flat sales in 2026, the U.S. could see annual growth in the mid-single digits, for gains in global market share. Much of the growth is coming from those with high net worth—the ones on the upstroke of the K-shaped economy.
But growth isn’t the whole story. Saks Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, right after not one but two CEOs resigned in a two-week span. The filing leaves creditors and brands scrambling. (It also cuts off a key channel for aspirational brands to acquire customers.) And brands are going through some drama of their own as several major fashion houses are shuffling their creative directors. Watch for new directions in brand identities and consumer engagement—and maybe in luxury retail itself.
Data Privacy: How TikTok Changed Its Terms
When it changed hands, TikTok changed its user terms. The new terms say the app may collect “precise location information” and other sensitive data points. Users are asking: Is that convenience or surveillance?
The difference is, the old policy called for using sensitive information only when it was needed to run the service or comply with legal requirements. Think payment details to process a retail purchase or a driver's license to verify identity. The new policy says TikTok “processes such sensitive personal information in accordance with applicable law.” The revised language aligns with the California Consumer Privacy Act. Wondering about data privacy laws beyond California? See our last issue for more on Mobile Data Rules (and Blues).
NRF Debrief: What We Learned at Retail’s Biggest Show
We started the year at the National Retail Federation show in New York, a great place to explore the new frontier of commerce. Here are three takeaways to know.
The neuroscience of shopping is revealing why we buy. The subconscious has a powerful influence on purchasing habits. Technologies like digital signage can tap into the emotional core of the brain and open new ways to shape buying behaviors.
Retail Media Networks (RMNs) are capturing more than views. What was once a media-centric experience is now monetizing customer attention. These in-store features show strong profit margins, despite their small portion of overall retail sales.
AI is transforming retail, but asterisks apply.Google aims to streamline the shopping experience with its Universal Commerce Protocol. That level of agentic AI could put a crimp in RMN revenue. Retailers also need to balance the convenience of AI with the authenticity Gen Z consumers crave. (We sense growing tension between AI agents, retailers and the customers who love them both. Stay tuned.)
For a deeper dive and more insights on events or conferences, follow Laura Barr on LinkedIn.
Read On Recent readings with insights on and beyond commercial real estate
What we’re hearing
The language of retail is always evolving. Here are some of the words increasingly on our radar. What would you add?
Choiceful: A description for shoppers that’s making its way around earnings calls. Translation: Sales are down.
Phygital retail: A fusion of physical and digital in a seamless shopping environment. Found in kiosks, unified inventory systems and experiential retail.
NTR: A TLA for non-tenant revenue, i.e., property revenue that doesn’t come from tenant rent. Examples: fees for amenities, parking and, of course, RMNs.
